Direction: Long (bias) | Timeframe: 15m execution, 1H/4H structure

NFP at 14:30 CET (08:30 ET). Plan published BEFORE the release — entries, stops, targets and invalidation defined in advance.

THE SETUP

Gold has broken out of a month-long 4,000–4,150 base. The Aug 4–6 impulse ran from ~4,040 to 4,300, pulled back cleanly to 4,240, and is now printing new highs at 4,325 — up almost 2% on the day BEFORE the number. Structure is higher lows above a rising session VWAP (~4,278). Key levels: today's high 4,328, breakout shelf 4,300, pullback low 4,240, base top 4,200, and the deeper reference at 4,145. Overhead: 4,350 (June bounce high), then 4,400 and 4,450.

THE MACRO CONTEXT

Consensus ~80k (prior 57k), UR 4.2%, AHE 3.5% y/y — but forecaster dispersion is extreme (18k to 157k), and the Fed is openly discussing a September HIKE. For gold the mechanics are direct:

Soft print (20–80k) → hike odds fade, real-yield pressure eases → gold up ← my base case
Hot print (>120k, AHE ≥0.4% m/m) → hike repricing, dollar and real yields up → gold down
Warning: today's +2% pre-NFP rally means the soft scenario is PARTLY priced. Even on a weak number, expect the first move to potentially be a shakeout toward VWAP before continuation. That's why I buy the retest, not the spike.

SCENARIO A — LONG (primary)

Preferred entry — retest variant:

Entry: 4,285–4,300 (VWAP + breakout shelf), only if the level HOLDS: 15m candle closes back above 4,300 after touching the zone
SL: 4,255 (below the shelf and the VWAP band — structure broken below there)
TP1: 4,350 — take 50%, SL to breakeven
TP2: 4,400; runner toward 4,450 only on a clear miss (<40k)

Momentum variant (if no pullback comes):

Entry: 15m close above 4,332
SL: 4,295
TP1: 4,400, TP2: 4,450
INVALIDATION (both variants): Long is wrong on a 15m close below 4,278 (session VWAP) after entry. Exit, no averaging.

SCENARIO B — SHORT (hot print)

Trigger: 15m close below 4,278 after the print
Entry: ~4,270 or a failed retest of 4,285 from below
SL: 4,310
TP1: 4,240 (Aug 6–7 pullback low) — take 50%
TP2: 4,200 (base top); extension 4,145 only if AHE ≥0.4% m/m AND UR ≤4.1%
INVALIDATION: Short is wrong on a 15m close back above 4,305.

RULES

Flat at 14:25 CET. No position into the print.
First 5–15 minutes = noise. Gold routinely spikes $20–40 both directions on NFP before choosing. The signal is the first 15m CLOSE, not the wick.
If price whips through BOTH 4,278 and 4,332 in the first 30 minutes → NO TRADE. Stand down.
Spreads on spot gold widen heavily at the print. Size off SL distance.
Do NOT short gold just because it "looks extended." Up 2% into the number is positioning, not a signal. The short needs the trigger — a close below VWAP — or it doesn't exist.

HONEST CAVEAT

Gold has already moved ahead of this release, which means part of my base case is in the price. If the number comes soft and gold SELLS anyway, that's the market telling you the trade was crowded — respect the invalidation, don't argue with it. Every level above is falsifiable. Anyone posting gold "signals" today without an invalidation price is not giving you analysis, they're giving you a lottery ticket with their name on it.

Not financial advice. Risk management is yours.