XAUUSD: Key Levels Analysis & Trading Plan (4020 - 4105 Zone)
The market recently had a strong bullish expansion (creating a bullish CHoCH), forming a short-term peak around 4118, and is currently in a corrective phase. Price is now consolidating around 4063, creating a short-term range between the 4078 - 4081 resistance zone and the 4034 - 4037 support zone.
The overall bias remains bullish following the previous upward leg, but price may retest lower liquidity/FVG zones before attempting another breakout higher.
Scenario 1: Buy Setups
Primary Buy Entry (High Probability): 4020 – 4022
Confluence & Reason: Strong FVG support at the base of the recent bullish leg, overlapping with old low liquidity. This offers the best Risk:Reward ratio and highest confluence.
Stop Loss (SL): 4008 (right below the FVG and the 4000 psychological low).
Secondary Buy Entry (Scalp): 4034 – 4037
Confluence & Reason: Immediate support level showing recent rejection wicks.
Stop Loss (SL): 4025
Scenario 2: Sell Setups
Primary Sell Entry: 4101 – 4105
Confluence & Reason: Bearish FVG zone aligned with the previous high where strong selling pressure originated.
Stop Loss (SL): 4116 (just above the 4118 high).
Secondary Sell Entry: 4078 – 4081
Confluence & Reason: Current corrective resistance level and short-term supply zone.
Stop Loss (SL): 4090 (above the minor 4090 FVG).
Scenario 3: Breakout Setups
To avoid fakeouts or chasing the market, do not enter immediately upon a level breach. Wait for a proper Breakout + Retest structure.
Bullish Breakout (Above 4081):
Condition: H1 candle closes clearly above 4081.
Breakout Buy Entry: Wait for a pullback (retest) to 4078 – 4081.
Stop Loss (SL): 4068
.
Bearish Breakout (Below 4020):
Condition: H1 candle closes completely below the 4020 FVG zone.
Breakout Sell Entry: Wait for a pullback (retest) to 4022 – 4025.
Stop Loss (SL): 4035