Weekly review for August 3–7. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow and options data. It's an NFP week, so Friday's jobs report is the driver that decides the next leg.

USOIL (main chart above)
Some interesting strikes went in on the options here. For now that's how it looks. There are of course options at 130, 138 and 147, but that's too far, only worth it if you leave part at breakeven and don't close, but Trump backs off on a strong rise, and it's the same now.

6EU2026 (EUR)

The 10% zones line up both from the contract and on the weekly, and that's also where the oldest Debt on the euro, from April 30, still sits. As I said last week, into the expiration we go up, but an adequate entry down at the lows for that ride wasn't given; I was waiting for 1.1185 or 1.1285 for the reversal. The 25% zones, both the upper and the lower, are interesting for trading, especially the lower one. On December, 6000 calls went through at the 1.20 strike, on spot that's the 1.1961 region, and there's a Debt there too, but that's already a reversal of the euro into further growth, all the way up to 1.23 on spot.

DXY (dollar index)
98.35 is the last support before 94, and 100.85 is the last resistance before 103.85. What the index chooses will be clear after the NFP. If it comes out weak, they'll take 94 by the new year.

USDJPY (JPY)
The Treasury and the Bank of Japan stepped in, as expected. Now the main question is whether they'll repeat 2024 or not. If they do, then you should only catch it at 144.50 and 150.75; there's also a chance it gets stuck at 147.50, but there without limits.

GCZ2026 (Gold)
Unlike the currencies, gold hasn't given in to the risk-on yet, and that's fairly strange, given that price has been in compression for a month and on the H4 the technicals are drawing a pennant, so the spring should straighten out. The weekly zone looks great for buys off it. The month zone sits clearly at 3551–3565. Everything from last week is still relevant: if there's enough strength to spill down to 3550, then from there you can long toward 4530 through the end of the year.

SIU2026 (Silver)
Overall it's the same logic as on gold. The percentage zones landed well on the levels, so let's see what they give us to work with.

6BU2026 (GBP)
Still thinking about whether to trade it from the long side and whether the reversal has already passed. Overall I think something like that could form in the move, and a shot up on the NFP if the data comes in weak. The balances that are in the market and haven't really been broken over the last year, it's quite realistic that we stay within them.

These are zones and scenarios I'm watching, not a call to trade. Let price come to your levels and let the reads converge first.

Educational only, not investment advice. Trading carries a high risk of capital loss. Past results don't guarantee future performance.

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