XAUUSD H1 SMC Analysis: FVG Rebalancing & Bullish Expansion Path
The XAUUSD H1 chart demonstrates a structured consolidation phase, resolving imbalances while respecting higher-timeframe support. Price action is currently preparing for a bullish expansion to rebalance upper Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and sweep remaining liquidity pools.
1. Market Structure & Liquidity Dynamics
Following a strong structural surge (BREAKOUT blue box) and a subsequent FAKE BREAKOUT (yellow box) near 4,160.000, price aggressively pulled back to cleanse buy-side liquidity. However, the macro bullish bias remains fully intact as price continues to respect the ascending Triangle Support Line and the major demand zone (4,000.000 – 4,020.000).
2. Imbalance & Current Price Action
Currently trading around 4,062.840, price action has formed local FVG (Fair Value Gap) pockets during the recent pullback:
Current Retest: Price is reacting to a recent bullish FVG near 4,040.000 – 4,050.000, using it as a launchpad to absorb sell pressure.
Overhead Imbalances: An unmitigated bearish FVG sits near 4,075.000 – 4,085.000, aligned directly with the descending orange Trend Line resistance.
According to the projected SMC pathway (blue arrow), price is expected to dip slightly to mitigate the local FVG support zone (~4,040.000) before launching an aggressive expansion to reclaim overhead imbalances and break above the descending trendline.
3. Strategic Upside Targets & Supply Pools
First Target: Reclaiming the overhead FVG and testing the Resistance Zone (4,100.000 – 4,120.000).
Primary Objective: Sweeping the liquidity pool above the previous high toward 4,140.000+.
Trade Execution Blueprint
Bias: Bullish (Demand & FVG Rebalancing)
Point of Interest (POI): 4,040.000 – 4,050.000 (Local FVG / Demand Confluence)
Take Profit Targets: 4,100.000 (TP1) / 4,140.000 (TP2)
Stop Loss: Below 3,995.000 (Invalidation below Triangle Support Line)