Yesterday Recap

USDTHB closed at 33.05 THB per US dollar, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded, although it remained below the 100 level, indicating that investors are still waiting for fresh catalysts, particularly key US economic data, to determine the next direction of the US dollar.

Overnight, US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 198K, slightly below the market expectation of 199K and down from the previous 203K, suggesting that the US labor market remains resilient. This provided short-term support for the US dollar.

Fundamental Analysis

USDTHB is expected to trade within a volatile range with a bullish bias in the short term. The market's primary focus tonight at 19:30 (GMT+7) is the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to increase to 88K, compared with the previous reading of 57K.

Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to stay at 0.3% MoM. These three indicators will play a crucial role in shaping market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.

If both NFP and Average Hourly Earnings come in stronger than expected while the Unemployment Rate remains unchanged or declines, the US dollar is likely to strengthen, potentially pushing USDTHB higher. Conversely, if labor market data disappoint—particularly if NFP falls below expectations or the Unemployment Rate rises—the US dollar could come under pressure, allowing the Thai baht to appreciate and driving USDTHB lower.

Technical Analysis

In the short term, USDTHB has rebounded from the 33.03 support level and is now testing the 33.16 resistance area. This price action has formed a Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling a short-term shift in momentum toward the upside.

If the pair continues to form Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) while breaking decisively above the 33.15 resistance level, it could extend gains toward the next resistance zone at 33.18–33.20.

In addition, the Thai stock market is expected to open lower in line with the weakness seen in US equities overnight. A softer equity market could weigh on the Thai baht and provide additional support for USDTHB in the near term.

However, the pair is still trading within a sideways consolidation range, suggesting that the market is accumulating momentum before choosing its next direction. A break below the 33.10 support level could trigger a decline toward 33.08–33.05, in line with the broader downtrend.

If tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls report beats market expectations, USDTHB could break above 33.15 and quickly advance toward 33.18–33.20. On the other hand, weaker-than-expected labor data may strengthen the Thai baht, pushing USDTHB back toward the 33.08–33.05 support zone.

Bias: Sideway to Bullish
Resistance: 33.15 – 33.18
Support: 33.10 – 33.08
Target: 33.18 – 33.20
Cut Loss: Below 33.08