NFP Friday - August the 7th.

Structure
- Price is still trading above the MSS level —
- Structure has not broken yet, so no confirmed bearish shift
- MSS remains the key level to watch —
- A clean break and hold below it would confirm the downside case
- Below MSS, POC (0.58144) is the next liquidity draw
- SSL/FVG zone (0.57880–0.57620) sits below POC —
- This gap also shows up as an actual market gap on the 1H timeframe,
- Raising the probability it gets filled if price gets there
- A deeper support/FVR level sits well below at 0.56982,
- The ultimate downside magnet if this leg extends
- Supply/resistance FVR above at 0.58935 caps the upside —
- Rejection there adds weight to the bearish case,
- A break above would favour continuation higher instead

Fundamental input
- RBNZ's case for another hike has weakened since its last meeting,
- As oil prices have fallen sharply following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement,
- Easing inflation concerns
- Economists remain split —
- Some banks still see a 25bp hike as needed to keep inflation expectations anchored,
- While others expect the RBNZ to stay on hold
- The RBNZ has already shifted its rate-track guidance,
- Signalling the next move is more likely up than down,
- Though the tightening path remains shallow
- NFP week adds cross-current risk —
- USD strength on a hot print could pressure NZD lower toward MSS and beyond
- Broader risk sentiment and China-linked demand remain a background driver for the Kiwi,
- Given its commodity-currency profile

Key levels
- Supply / Resistance FVR – 0.58935
- MSS level – not yet broken
- POC – 0.58144
- SSL / FVG (high-probability fill, confirmed on 1H) – 0.57880–0.57620
- Support / FVR – 0.56982

Trade plan
- No confirmed bias yet — MSS holding keeps this a range/watch scenario
- Break and hold below MSS → confirms bearish shift, targets POC then SSL/FVG
- Rejection at supply (0.58935) →
- Adds to bearish pressure, but still needs the MSS break for confirmation
- Reclaim and hold above supply → keeps bias bullish for continuation,
- But Invalidates any bearish potential
- RBNZ commentary and NFP are the key catalysts this week —
- Expect volatility around both, likely the trigger for the move either way

Not financial advice – structural framework for education, manage your own risk.
Kwagga.