Gold is entering today's ISM Manufacturing PMI release in a compressed structure, where volatility could expand rapidly once the data hits the market. With price trapped between rising support and nearby supply, the next impulsive move may define the short-term trend.

Market Structure

The H1 chart continues to show a sequence of higher lows, suggesting buyers are still defending the market despite recent selling pressure. However, every recovery has been capped before reaching the previous swing high, leaving the market without a confirmed bullish breakout.

The current structure looks more like accumulation than trend continuation, with liquidity building on both sides ahead of a major catalyst.

Technical Outlook

Price is currently reacting near the ascending trendline while trading below a well-defined Order Block around 4,100–4,115.

My preferred scenario:

A final sweep into the trendline support to collect downside liquidity.
Strong rejection from support.
Bullish expansion targeting the H1 Order Block.
If buyers successfully close above the OB, the market could begin attacking the weak high around 4,166.

The bullish idea becomes less attractive if the trendline fails decisively, opening the door for a deeper retracement toward the major support zone.

Fundamental Catalyst

Today's ISM Manufacturing PMI could become the trigger that breaks this consolidation.

A weaker-than-expected PMI may increase expectations for a more dovish Fed, potentially supporting gold.
A stronger reading could strengthen the USD and create another liquidity sweep before the market finds direction.

Rather than predicting the news, I prefer waiting for price confirmation after the release, letting liquidity reveal the real intention of smart money.

Key Levels

Resistance

4,100–4,115 (H1 Order Block)
4,166 (Weak High)

Support

Rising trendline
3,996 (Strong Low)

The market is approaching a decision point. With both technical compression and a high-impact economic release lining up, today's move could offer one of the clearest opportunities of the week.

Do you expect ISM PMI to fuel a breakout higher, or will gold first hunt liquidity below support before reversing?