Macro approach:
- The US dollar rebounded alongside rising oil prices as optimism over easing Middle East tensions faded.
- Demand for US dollar options increased ahead of today’s US NFP report, after Fed Chair Warsh’s less forward-looking guidance heightened the importance of incoming data for the policy outlook.
- The dollar may remain volatile after the NFP release, with geopolitical uncertainty still in focus.

Technical approach:
- DXY consolidated within a tight range of 99.50-100.03 after rebounding from the strong prior decline. The index is between both converging EMAs, indicating a potential shift to sideways.
- If DXY remains above EMA21 and breaks above 100.03, the index may correct further toward EMA78 and the resistance at 100.45.
- On the contrary, closing below EMA21 may prompt a retreat further toward the immediate support at 99.50.


Analysis by: Quoc Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness