EUR/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup
🌐Macro Background
Coordinated Intervention Dynamic: Japan confirmed it conducted a joint foreign exchange intervention with the U.S. Treasury to support the weak yen. Rather than selling USD, reports indicate the U.S. Treasury bought yen against euros (selling EUR). Selling euros allows the U.S. to assist Japanese authorities in strengthening the yen without signalling a desire for a weaker U.S. Dollar.
Market Impact: The sudden yen-buying operation triggered a sharp appreciation in JPY across major pairs. EUR/JPY dropped to its lowest level since November before consolidating around 181.50 in Asian trading.
📊Technical Structure
The EUR/JPY 4-Hour chart illustrates a sharp, news-driven sell-off followed by a modest bounce:
Resistance Zone: Located between 182.04 and 182.84
Support Zone: Found between 179.93 and 180.74
🎯Trade Setup
Look to open short positions on relief rallies into the 182.00–182.50 Resistance Zone, setting a stop loss above 183.10 and targeting 180.74 and 179.93.
❌Invalidation
Invalidation Level: A sustained 4-hour candle close above 182.84.
📝Trade Summary
Joint action by U.S. and Japanese authorities—specifically selling EUR to buy JPY—creates strong macro resistance for EUR/JPY. Sell on rallies into the 182.00–182.50 zone, targeting a retest of the lower support area around 180.00.
⚠️Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.