Rationale for Bullish Support
(A tiered breakdown of key bullish factors)

1. Weak employment data dampens rate-hike expectations; marginal improvement in the macro environment
Soft non-farm payroll data has directly lowered the probability of a September rate hike, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. A two-week rally in US equities—with the S&P 500 hitting a record closing high—has boosted risk appetite and driven a correlated rise in BTC, effectively capping downside risk; the $63,800–$64,000 zone has successfully flipped from resistance to support, showing strong buying interest on dips.

2. Institutional capital inflows reinforce the price floor
ETFs have shifted from prolonged outflows to consistent net inflows, while exchange spot inventories remain low. Large-scale holders continue to lock assets in cold storage, eliminating the risk of concentrated sell-offs; buying support during pullbacks remains robust, securing medium-term support levels at $63,000 and $62,300. The Fear & Greed Index holds steady in the neutral range (45)—indicating an absence of retail-driven speculative bubbles—which keeps the magnitude of pullbacks manageable.

3. Technical structure steadily rising; healthy short-term rebound pattern
The price has stabilized above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages on the daily chart, while the 4-hour chart shows a confirmed "breakout and retest" pattern, establishing the $64,000 level as a critical threshold for short-term momentum. Residual momentum from earlier concentrated short-covering remains, and the potential for passive stop-losses on remaining low-level short positions provides additional upward pressure, helping the price test higher resistance levels.

4. Easing geopolitical tensions provide a tailwind
Progress in negotiations regarding strait navigation has suppressed oil prices and alleviated energy-driven inflationary pressures; this reduces the incentive for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, providing a stable, positive external backdrop for the market.