Apples Don't Fall Far From the Tree, But WHY Did This One Fall??
Good afternoon, Traders.
There's an old saying that "the apple doesn't fall far from the tree." Well...this week, the Apple definitely fell.
Actually...it didn't just fall. It dropped more than 10% after earnings. Now, if you were holding that move, that's a whole lot of iPhones disappearing from your portfolio in a single day!
So what happened? Did Wall Street suddenly decide Apple isn't a great company anymore? Of course not. Apple didn't fall because Tim Cook forgot how to make iPhones overnight.
It fell because price had wandered so far away from institutional demand that the market needed to come back and clean up the mess. It's like, while everybody wanted to talk about earnings, the chart was over in the corner whispering, "I hope you all are finished! Because I'm still headed to that Weekly Demand Zone."
This is another clear case of where the structure had already told us this pullback was coming. And if you had eyes to see what the structure was saying, you could have seen it coming too! And before you start to say, "oh, yeah...it's easy to say that after it already fell", just look at ANY of our posts here, @AkeelahTraders, and specific thoughts on Apple on Earnings Day, and you can see that there is a systematic way of reading the markets that we highlight, teach and trade consistently.
Most traders fail to recognize that markets don't just keep climbing forever. Healthy bull markets need healthy pullbacks. If a market keeps running higher without ever coming back to absorb liquidity, it eventually becomes unstable. Think about somebody running a marathon. If they sprint the first 20 miles without ever slowing down, you already know how that story is going to end.
Markets work the same way. Eventually they have to pull back, catch their breath, absorb liquidity, and decide whether there's enough institutional buying left to continue.
That's exactly what Apple had been doing.
If you look at the Weekly chart, Apple had pushed up to $342...nearly 15% extended above the Weekly Demand Zone between $275 and $302. From a market structure standpoint, that imbalance had been sitting there for weeks. Long before Thursday's earnings report, I would have told you that this market needed to come back and deal with that liquidity if the larger bullish trend was going to remain healthy.
So while everyone else was debating earnings estimates, AI announcements, analyst upgrades, and whether Apple would "beat expectations," I was looking at something much simpler.
I wasn't asking whether Apple was going to beat earnings. I was asking a much simpler question... 'Where is my Institutional Demand and how far has price wandered away it?' That's the question that mattered.
The earnings selloff didn't create some brand-new bearish trend. It simply became the catalyst that delivered the pullback the Weekly structure had already been asking for. BUT...something else interesting happened in the process. As price fell, it also created a Daily Break of Structure by closing below the Daily Demand Zone around $323-$329. That's important because the Weekly chart tells me where we're likely going. The Daily chart tells me how we're likely to get there
From here, I would normally expect to see price either:
1. Continue working deeper into the Weekly Demand Zone with one or more Daily closes. Once there, I'd expect price to spend some time consolidating. That's where I'll be looking to see whether real institutional buyers begin stepping in.
2. Attempt a retest of that broken Daily Demand Zone back up at ~$323. If sellers reject that retest, then this current pullback can continue working deeper into the Weekly Demand Zone between $275 and $302, which has been my primary target all along.
Now, let's keep this in perspective. The Weekly structure is still bullish and we have NOT had a Weekly Break of Structure. If buyers fail to defend this Weekly Demand Zone and we eventually get a true Weekly Break of Structure DOWN, then the conversation changes completely. At that point, my attention immediately shifts to the Weekly and Daily Demand Source around $245-$250, because that becomes the next major institutional objective.
Until then...
I'm simply watching the market do exactly what healthy markets have always done. I'd rather ignore the news and hype and spend my time reading the plan the market already wrote. I'll let you decide for yourself which one you will do.
Trade what you SEE...
Not what you THINK.
So, how do you like them apples??? I'd love to hear your thoughts.