BTCUSDT trades at $64,980.91, up a modest 0.22% on the session. On-chain flows are mixed — spot ETFs posted only $19.6M in net inflows on Aug 4, a weak bounce-back after a $265M outflow day. Strategy also sold 1,638 BTC (~$105M) this week, a small stack relative to its 842K BTC holdings, but it pulled a dependable bid out of the market. Counter to that, Ansem (@blknoiz06) has been calling out early bottom signals — higher lows on bad news, rising app-level activity — worth tracking, but not confirmed yet.

Bias: Bearish. Price is currently sitting directly inside the $65,024.87–$65,216.30 selling order block, which happens to line up almost exactly with the 50-day EMA at $64,587 — a level that's capped every BTC rally attempt over the past three weeks. That confluence is the whole thesis here: this looks like resistance, not a launchpad.

The plan: Short from the current zone. Entry $65,028.10, stop $65,536.55 (risk $508.45, 0.78%).

Targets:

TP1 $63,972.09 → -1.62% → ~2.1R
TP2 $62,863.93 → -3.33% → ~4.3R, into the buying order block ($62,805.26–$62,440.22)

Analysis: If BTC closes cleanly above $65,216.30 with volume, this thesis is invalidated — don't hold a short "on hope" through a real breakout.

Common mistake: oversizing a short because the resistance "looks obvious." Obvious levels fail too. Cap risk at 1-2% of account regardless of conviction.

Not financial advice — plan your own risk.

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingView