Bitcoin: Third Rejection Keeps Bears in Control
Three Failed Attempts
Bitcoin has now been rejected three consecutive times from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $64,212, reinforcing this level as a significant area of short-term resistance. Each rally has lost momentum before bulls could establish a convincing breakout.
The Short-Term Structure
The broader short-term picture remains bearish, with price continuing to produce lower highs and lower lows. Until that structure changes, the burden of proof remains on the bulls despite recent buying interest.
A Bearish Reversal Developing?
The latest candle is threatening to form a bearish engulfing pattern. Confirmation would require a break below the previous candle's low, increasing the probability that sellers are beginning to regain control.
The Levels That Matter
A break and close above $65,409 would invalidate the current lower-high structure and signal a bullish change of character. Conversely, a loss of $63,322 would strengthen the bearish case and expose the $62,300-$62,275 support zone.
Momentum Remains Mixed
The 100/50-Period EMAs remain bearishly crossed, although both averages have begun to flatten as price consolidates. RSI continues to move sideways around the mid-range, while the StochRSI is crossing lower in overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum may be fading.
In Summary
Bitcoin remains trapped beneath an important area of resistance, with repeated failures around $64,212 keeping the short-term outlook tilted in favour of the bears. While the current structure continues to produce lower highs and lower lows, the market is approaching an inflection point. A move above $65,409 would improve the technical outlook considerably, whereas a break below $63,322 would likely shift attention back towards the recent lows around $62,300-$62,275.