In this analysis, the primary focus is identifying the corrective structure that has been developing since Bitcoin's recent all-time high. Based on the current wave count and the Elliott Wave Principle, the price action continues to resemble the complex Zigzag family. The key question, however, is whether the market is developing a Double Zigzag or extending into a Triple Zigzag.

Under the aggressive scenario, the preferred interpretation continues to favor the development of a Triple Zigzag. From this perspective, any corrective pattern forming at the current price region—whether a Simple Zigzag or a more complex corrective structure—may represent nothing more than Wave (X). If this wave count is correct, the market would still require another Zigzag to complete Wave (Z), implying that another decline should be expected once the current corrective phase is complete.

On the other hand, the conservative scenario assumes that the larger correction may have already ended as a Double Zigzag, with Wave (II) now complete. If price confirms a valid impulsive structure while respecting the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone, the probability that a new bullish cycle has begun would increase significantly.

At the current stage, the red-circled region represents the market's decision zone. The price action and wave structure that develop within this area will determine which of these two scenarios gains the upper hand.

As with every Elliott Wave study, this is a structural interpretation of the market—not a price prediction. As long as the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle continue to support these wave counts, both scenarios remain valid.

Ultimately, the market itself will determine which structure unfolds.

We do not predict price—we follow the structure the market builds.

— Mr. Nobody
Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher
"Patterns whisper. I listen." 📊🎧

Bitcoin
Jul 25
Bitcoin: Wave (V) Begins or a Larger Zigzag Continues? | Elliott