The swing structure is currently showing a mid-term downtrend for NQ, and price has reached the pullback target for the swing continuation lower.

Looking at the volume profile since the ATH was created, the POC is also sitting inside this pullback target — that confluence gives the location more weight. The pullback zone has already been reached and consumed without a reaction yet, so I'm interested in joining the downside once price actually leaves the pullback zone to the downside. That gives me a tighter risk reference than entering while still inside the zone.

Main targets are the swing low and the sub-structure pullback target. If price is unable to continue lower, that sub-structure pullback target has the potential to drive price higher instead — and once the risk reference breaks in that scenario, it shifts the swing direction to the upside. Given that two-way potential, using the sub-structure pullback target as both partial target and trailing reference is the best practice for now.

If the trade does run below the swing low, there isn't much room for further continuation — the pullback target for the broader market direction sits nearby, and that's the level I'd be interested in for a long-term position from there.

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Trade Idea

Short, joining the downside once price leaves the pullback zone to the downside — this timing gives a tighter risk reference. Main targets: the swing low and the sub-structure pullback target, with the sub-structure pullback target doing double duty as partial target and trailing reference given its two-way potential.


Shared for educational and analytical purposes only — not financial advice or a trade recommendation. Entries, stops, and targets are shown for study, not signals to copy.