After reaching a major high near 5,602 at the end of January 2026, gold began forming a clear bearish structure. The price later recorded a lower high near 5,360 and has continued trading below the descending trendline.

During this downward move, the price reacted to several important Fibonacci retracement levels, including:

5,137 at the 23.6% level
4,965 at the 38.2% level
4,826 at the 50% level
4,667 at the 61.8% level
4,488 at the 78.6% level

Gold is currently trading near a key resistance zone between 4,280 and 4,310, while 4,430 represents an important confirmation level for any potential bullish shift.

Bullish Scenario

If the price successfully breaks above the 4,280–4,310 resistance zone, followed by a daily close and sustained trading above 4,430, a new bullish wave could begin.

The potential upside targets would be the following Fibonacci levels:

4,488, followed by 4,667, 4,826, 4,965, and 5,137.

If bullish momentum continues, the price could extend toward the previous high at 5,360, followed by the major high near 5,602.

Bearish Scenario

If gold fails to break above the 4,280–4,310 resistance zone, or fails to hold above 4,430 while showing bearish rejection signals, selling pressure could continue toward 4,104, followed by a retest of the previous low near 3,939.

A clear daily close below the support zone between 3,939 and 3,838 could open the way for a deeper decline toward 3,500. This area approximately aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near 3,506.

Conclusion

The 4,280–4,310 zone is the first key area that may determine the next market direction, while 4,430 remains an important confirmation level for the bullish scenario.

A breakout and sustained move above 4,430 would support a bullish reversal and a move toward the Fibonacci targets. However, failure to break higher would keep bearish pressure in place, with 3,939 and 3,500 remaining the main downside targets.

This analysis presents possible technical scenarios for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a direct recommendation to buy or sell.