Tensions between the US and Iran saw a dramatic reversal after a sharp escalation; while the situation has temporarily eased, energy-related risks remain a focal point for the market. Should diplomatic efforts fail, these risks could once again become a major driver pushing oil prices higher.

From a technical perspective, the market opened sharply higher today—spurred by the sudden de-escalation in the Middle East and US-Iran negotiations—and has maintained an upward trajectory. Currently, the price continues to fluctuate within the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands. Last week, we repeatedly advocated for short positions and warned against blindly chasing shorts at lows; this strategy played out exactly as expected, saving those who listened from losses. Chasing rallies or panic-selling at mid-range levels is ill-advised. The overall daily trend remains bearish. As we approach a potential turning point, the best strategy is to trade within the established range—selling high and buying low—and wait for the trend to clarify before committing further. The strong support below 4000, if breached level by level, will transform into significant resistance—a scenario we anticipate for the future. With short-term highs steadily shifting lower, the 4100 level serves as a critical resistance watershed today. Following the brief fundamental stimulus, the market is likely to revert to bearish control; the strategy should be to follow the trend, prioritizing selling at highs while treating buying at lows as a secondary tactic.

In summary, the key short-term resistance zone for the day is 4100–4120, while the critical support zone lies at 4000–3980. Trading strategy: initiate light short positions in the 4060–4070 range and add to shorts at 4090–4095; target 4020–4000, holding the position if the support level breaks.