Gold’s recent rally appears to have been driven less by traditional safe-haven demand and more by changing inflation and interest-rate expectations.

The price has broken above the upper trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle and the 50_SMA(Daily), but is now approaching the Resistance Zone and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ).

Can gold sustain the breakout, or is a pullback toward the 50_SMA(Daily) approaching?

Macro Outlook

Progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations reduced concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushed crude oil prices lower.

Lower oil prices eased inflation fears, reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, and increased the appeal of gold.

At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined toward 4.60%, while the U.S. dollar weakened. Since gold does not generate interest, lower yields and a softer dollar provided additional support for the rally.

Technical Analysis

Gold( XAUUSD ) has successfully broken above the upper trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle and the 50_SMA(Daily). The price is now attempting to break above the Resistance Zone while approaching the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ).

From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have started a new Impulsive Wave following the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

However, the recent bullish move has not been supported by strong trading volume, which could be an early warning sign.

💡 Educational Note: A breakout supported by weak volume may lack sufficient market participation, increasing the probability of a pullback or retest before the trend continues.

I expect gold to experience a pullback from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ), potentially retesting the 50_SMA(Daily), before resuming its broader bullish trend.

Trade Setup

First Take Profit(TP): $4,207

Second Take Profit(TP): $4,173

Stop Loss(SL): $4,312

Note: Any news regarding an agreement or disagreement between Iran and the United States could immediately affect gold and other financial assets. Therefore, developments in the Middle East should be monitored closely.

Do you think gold will move back below $4,200 before continuing its bullish trend?

🔴 Yes

🟢 No

📌 Gold Analysis(XAUUSD), 4-hour time frame.

🛑 Always use proper risk management and set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position.

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