Fundamental Analysis

CHFTHB is expected to trade within a range with a slight bearish bias. There are no major Swiss economic releases scheduled today, leaving the Swiss franc primarily driven by global market sentiment and key US economic data, particularly the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI.

At the same time, the prevailing Risk-On sentiment continues to support the Thai baht, putting downward pressure on USDTHB and potentially weighing on CHFTHB in the short term.

If US economic data comes in stronger than expected, it could strengthen the US dollar and reduce demand for safe-haven assets, placing pressure on the Swiss franc and increasing the likelihood of CHFTHB moving lower. Conversely, weaker-than-expected US data could revive demand for safe-haven assets, supporting the Swiss franc and allowing CHFTHB to rebound.

Technical Analysis

CHFTHB continues to trade in a Sideway to Bearish structure after pulling back from its recent highs and remaining unable to reclaim its short-term moving averages. Price also continues to trade below the Fair Value Gap (FVG) resistance zone at 41.15–41.20, which remains a key barrier and indicates that selling pressure continues to dominate the short-term outlook.

Meanwhile, the RSI remains below the 50 level, while the MACD stays in negative territory with its histogram continuing to reflect bearish momentum. Although selling pressure has begun to ease, there are still no clear signs of a bullish reversal, suggesting that CHFTHB is likely to remain range-bound with a downside bias.

A break below the 41.06 support level would confirm a fresh wave of selling and increase the probability of a decline toward the 40.99–40.95 support zone, which represents the primary bearish target.

Key Risks

If CHFTHB rebounds and manages to hold above 41.15 while closing decisively above the Fair Value Gap (FVG), it would indicate that buying momentum is returning and that bearish pressure is fading. Such a move could open the door for a recovery toward the 41.18–41.20 resistance zone.

In addition, if global financial markets shift back into a Risk-Off environment due to economic or geopolitical concerns, demand for safe-haven assets could increase, strengthening the Swiss franc and limiting the downside pressure on CHFTHB more than currently expected.

Bias

Sideway to Bearish

Target

40.99 – 40.95 (Bearish Scenario)

Resistance

41.15 – 41.20

Support

41.05 – 41.03

Cut Loss

41.21 (for short positions)