AUD/USD — Long swing setup (1D)

THE SETUP
AUD/USD has built a clean five-week uptrend off the early-July base near 0.6860 — a steady sequence of higher highs and higher lows — and has now pushed through the 0.7000/0.7025 resistance shelf that capped the June recovery. That broken shelf is the entry: I want the retest of 0.7010–0.7035 as old resistance flips to support, rather than chasing at the highs. The idea is invalid on a daily close back below 0.6975.

CONFLUENCES
- Daily uptrend intact — higher lows since the ~0.6860 July base
- Entry = 0.7000/0.7025 prior resistance, now flipped support (retest)
- Daily RSI near 60 and rising above its average — momentum confirms the trend
- Current up-leg breaks the June range high
- Clean invalidation below 0.6975; RR ~1.5 to TP1, ~3.7 to TP3

FUNDAMENTALS
A risk-on tone with US indices at/near records supports the high-beta Aussie while the US dollar corrects lower into Friday's (Aug 7) US non-farm payrolls — the key risk here: a hot print lifts the USD and can push price back toward or below the entry. The RBA is widely expected to hold on Aug 11 after a soft Q2 CPI, so the AUD side is event-light until then. Both events sit inside the trade — size and stop accordingly.

TRADE PLAN
Entry zone: 0.7010 – 0.7035 (limit, on a pullback)
Stop loss: 0.6975 (below the 0.7000 flip level and the up-leg's last higher low)
TP1: 0.7095 (+1.0% | ~1.5R)
TP2: 0.7150 (+1.8% | prior structure)
TP3: 0.7200 (+2.5% | June range high / round number)
Invalidation: daily close below 0.6975 kills the long.

Follow for the daily levels — updates posted on this idea as it plays out.

Not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage risk.