Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.||
MARKET-BEATING SCORE = 1/10
Dividend yield TTM
18.31% (Payout ratio:131.11%)

"a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust. It engages in a series of transactions of senior secured loans and other real estate related assets. "

How will this company navigate their unique trials ahead and will they come out profitable? Read the key risk assessment.
Earnings on the 11th Aug.
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PEGY -0.48 — negative, speculative.
EPS growth -33.0% — declining.
Revenue declining 8.3% YoY.
Gross margin 85.2% — strong moat.
FCF margin 36.9% — real cash generation.
D/E 0.44 — conservative leverage.
Profitable & Undervalued
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KEY RISK ASSESSMENT

"Could a policy change or major competitor disrupt growth in the next 2 years?"

Chicago Atlantic faces significant disruption risks from potential federal cannabis policy changes, which could invite traditional banks into the sector and compress the high-yield margins the company currently enjoys in this underserved market. While regulatory reform may improve borrower credit quality, it threatens the structural inefficiencies that allow REFI to maintain its competitive edge over mainstream lenders. Additionally, the company’s planned merger into a Business Development Company (BDC) represents a major structural shift that could impact its growth strategy and operational focus through 2026.

Risk Level:
Moderate
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POSITIVE CATALYST OUTLOOK

"Could a policy change or competitor headwinds create a positive catalyst in the next 2 years?"

The potential federal rescheduling of cannabis serves as a primary catalyst, as it is expected to materially improve borrower credit profiles and cash flows across REFI's portfolio ((https://www.stocktitan(dot net) /sec-filings/REFI/8-k-chicago-atlantic-real-estate-finance-inc-reports-material-event-47b82bf12644.html)).

While federal reform may eventually increase competition, the current "scarcity premium" persists because traditional banks remain cautious, allowing REFI to maintain high yields and strong collateral protections ((https://umbrex.(dot com) /resources/company-profiles/chicago-atlantic-real-estate-finance-inc/)).

Additionally, the company’s definitive merger with Chicago Atlantic BDC Inc. and the continued expansion of state-level legalization provide significant structural tailwinds for growth through 2026 ((https://www.globenewswire (dot com )/news-release/2026/06/18/3314046/0/en/chicago-atlantic-real-estate-finance-inc-and-chicago-atlantic-bdc-inc-announce-definitive-merger-agreement.html)).

Positive Outlook:
Moderate
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.

Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)


** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution. **A single candle is a range on a lower timeframe. *Find the range and define its, creation dates, prices, and risk parameters. A range is broken down into 4 candle, which create 6 levels that define the range and illustrate market structure.
Focus only on the first and last candle of each range. The last candle of each type of range has two levels - see FS & Inv. FS Candles below.

DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED:
When price is above a distribution range, these candles/levels act as support.

(BS) BACKSIDE Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level. high angle accumulation trends, f.v,g's

(FS) FrontSide Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a low angle accumulation trend. The top of Distribution candles are used as support. The bottom of the FrontSide candle is the SwingLow of the range. The FS candle wants to protect the SwingLow. When/if Price Action closes below the SwingLow, the level is invalidated. Find another range to trade.

ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED: When price is below an accumulation range, these candles/levels act as resistance.

INVERSE BACKSIDE (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level. Creates high angle distribution trends, f.v.g, protects the Inv.FS candle

INVERSE FRONTSIDE (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a low angle distribution trend. The bottom of Accumulation candles are used as resistance.
The top of the Inv.FrontSide candle is the SwingHigh of the range. The Inv.FS candle wants to protect the SwingHigh. When/if Price Action closes above the SwingHigh, the level is invalidated. Find another range to trade.