Taking lead from our previous analysis, Gold behaved broadly in line with expectations and remained stuck inside a thin range.

The range is now squeezing further, showing that volatility has compressed. However, we do not see an immediate breakout yet. Gold may spend more time inside this zone before making the next major move.

Trend Hierarchy

Secular Trend: Bullish
Intermediate Trend: Bearish Correction
Short-Term Trend: Tight Range / Compression

Market Structure

Gold continues to trade above the recent support area near 3970, while upside attempts remain limited.

The bullish RSI divergence is still visible, but it has not produced a strong upside move so far. This weak reaction keeps the bearish case active.

Outlook

We maintain the view that a downside break is more probable than a clean upside breakout.

However, confirmation is required. A daily close below 3970/3940 may open the path toward lower levels, with the 3600 region still remaining the major long-term buying area.

The breakdown may take a few more weeks if the range continues to compress.

Stance

➡️ Gold Still Range-Bound
➡️ Volatility Squeeze Continuing
➡️ Bullish Divergence Reaction Remains Weak
➡️ Bearish Breakdown Slightly Favored
➡️ Confirmation Needed Below 3970/3940
➡️ 3600 Remains Major Long-Term Buy Area

Price tells the story.

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