Fundamental Analysis

AUDTHB is expected to trade within a range with a slight bearish bias. There are no major Australian economic releases scheduled today. Meanwhile, China's Caixin Services PMI for July came in at 50.4, below the market expectation of 53.7 and down from 54.1 in the previous month. The weaker reading signals a slowdown in China's services sector, raising concerns over economic momentum and commodity demand, which could weigh on the Australian dollar.

In addition, investors are closely monitoring tonight's US economic releases, particularly the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI. Stronger-than-expected US data could strengthen the US dollar and increase pressure on the Australian dollar, keeping AUDTHB biased toward the downside in the short term.

Technical Analysis

AUDTHB continues to trade in a Sideway to Bearish structure after pulling back from a key resistance zone and remaining unable to break back above the descending trendline. The short-term market structure continues to form Lower Highs and Lower Lows, indicating that sellers remain in control.

Price is also trading below its short-term moving averages, while the RSI remains below the 50 level and the MACD continues to trade in negative territory. Although bearish momentum has started to slow, there are still no clear signs of a bullish reversal, suggesting that selling pressure may persist in the near term.

A break below the 23.37 support level would confirm a fresh wave of selling and increase the probability of a decline toward the 23.34–23.32 support zone, which represents the primary bearish target.

In addition, the SET Index is expected to open higher, supported by gains in US equities and the continued low level of the VIX, reflecting a Risk-On environment. This could encourage capital inflows into Thailand, strengthen the Thai baht, and place further downside pressure on AUDTHB.

Key Risks

If AUDTHB rebounds and manages to hold above 23.41 while breaking decisively above the descending trendline, it would suggest that buying momentum is returning and that bearish pressure is beginning to fade. Such a move could pave the way for a recovery toward the 23.43–23.44 resistance zone.

Furthermore, the Australian dollar could receive support from external factors, such as a recovery in commodity prices, a weaker US Dollar Index (DXY), or an improvement in global Risk-On sentiment. These factors could help limit downside pressure and allow AUDTHB to rebound more than currently expected.

Bias

Sideway to Bearish

Target

23.34 – 23.32 (Bearish Scenario)

Support

23.37 – 23.34

Resistance

23.41 – 23.43

Cut Loss

23.42 (for short positions)