XRP's still working through the aftermath of that bearish BoS on the 4H, where price cracked the 1.0473 swing low 12 bars back and hasn't been able to reclaim it. Trend bias on the STC panel is firmly Downtrend, with price at 1.0306 sitting in the lower half of the band, below both EMA21 (1.0432) and EMA55 (1.0604). The 1.0604 EMA55 is doing its job as trend backbone — every push higher has stalled well before it, and the swing high up at 1.0933 from 31 bars ago is still open and untested.

Why it matters: after a confirmed break of structure that aligns with the trend filter, sellers usually get another swing at the lows before anyone seriously talks about a reversal. The band lower sits at 1.0238, so there's not much cushion between current price and a fresh probe of the window low at 1.0128.

The setup activates on a 4H close back below 1.0238 — that reasserts the lower half of the band and puts the window low in play. Invalidation is a clean 4H close above 1.0604 EMA55; that flips the trend read and negates the bearish continuation. Watching the reaction there.

Targets: 1.0128 — window low, first magnet. 0.9950 — round-number extension if the low gives way. Upside cap for any bounce is 1.0432 EMA21, where sellers have been fading rallies.

Setup: 4H close below 1.0238 band lower reactivates downside toward the 1.0128 window low.
Invalidation: 4H close above 1.0604 EMA55 invalidates the bearish continuation.
Targets: 1.0128 — window low, first magnet below current price · 0.9950 — round-number extension if 1.0128 gives way · 1.0432 — EMA21, ceiling for any counter-trend bounce