XAUUSD has decisively broken above the downtrend line, driven by a series of strong bullish candles and expanding volume. The price is now trading above both the EMA34 and EMA89, signaling a clear shift in short-term structure in favor of the buyers.

In my view, chasing the price after the rapid rally toward the 4,280 level is no longer the optimal strategy.

I prefer waiting for XAUUSD to pull back to the new support zone of 4,180–4,240. If the price shows a rejection wick and the H2 candle closes back above 4,240, it will confirm the flip of the previous resistance level into support.

Furthermore, the macroeconomic backdrop supports a bullish outlook; the USD and US bond yields are weakening, while market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have declined. This creates a favorable environment for gold to maintain its strength.

Signals for the upcoming session:
Buy watch zone: 4,180–4,240
Confirmation: H2 candle rejects lower levels and reclaims 4,240
Targets: 4,380–4,410
Invalidation: Clear H2 close below 4,160