Based on the current market structure, the primary bearish impulse appears to have completed a five-wave sequence, with price now developing a complex corrective structure. In my view, the recent bullish movement is more likely to be corrective in nature rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend.

My primary scenario is that price is currently completing **Wave IV** or the final stage of a complex correction (**WXY / Triangle**). Therefore, I consider the highlighted resistance zone to be a potential area where the correction may end and the next bearish wave could begin.

At this stage, I am **not looking to enter a short position immediately**. Instead, I am waiting for a valid **bearish trigger**, such as a market structure break, a bearish reversal candlestick pattern, or Elliott Wave confirmation within this resistance zone. If such confirmation appears, it would significantly strengthen my bearish outlook.

Under my primary scenario, I expect the market to resume its downward movement once the correction is complete. The first major objective is a break below the psychological **$4,000** level. If price establishes itself below this level, the probability of an extended bearish continuation toward lower support levels will increase.

### Alternative Scenario

The bullish scenario remains valid, although I assign it a lower probability. If price breaks decisively above the highlighted resistance zone and manages to hold above it, this wave count may require reassessment. In that case, the correction could extend further than expected, allowing the market to reach higher resistance levels before a major bearish reversal takes place.

### Conclusion

As long as the current resistance remains intact, **my primary bias remains bearish**. My main focus is to identify a high-probability short opportunity, and I believe that, if this scenario is confirmed, the likelihood of a move below **$4,000** is greater than the probability of a sustained bullish continuation.

> **Disclaimer:** This analysis reflects my personal interpretation of Elliott Wave Theory and is shared for educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always practice proper risk and money management.