XAUUSD: Buyers Broke the High, But NFP Is the Real Test

Market Context

Gold is recovering strongly after earlier weakness around the 4,070 area. Buyers have stepped back in, supported by market focus on US-Iran talks and the possibility of a temporary deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

If tension cools, inflation pressure from energy may ease. But the market is not fully calm yet. Traders are also waiting for US July jobs data on Friday, which can bring strong volatility to USD, yields, and gold.

Key point: gold has broken the weak high, but buyers must hold 4,119 to keep this breakout valid.

Technical Structure

Gold is trading around 4,137 after breaking the Weak High and shifting short-term structure bullish. The recent BOS confirms that buyers are currently controlling momentum.

The nearest support is 4,119. This is the Buy Zone and the level buyers need to defend if price pulls back.

If 4,119 holds, gold may continue toward the First Liquidity Target around 4,148 - 4,154. A clean break above this area can open the way toward the Final Liquidity Target at 4,168 - 4,172.

Below the current structure, the Buyer Hold Zone sits around 4,068 - 4,077. If gold loses 4,119, this zone may become the next important retest area.

Key Levels

Current Price: 4,137
Buy Zone: 4,119
First Liquidity Target: 4,148 - 4,154
Final Liquidity Target: 4,168 - 4,172
Buyer Hold Zone: 4,068 - 4,077
Main Demand Zone: 4,040 - 4,060
Deep Demand Zone: 4,000 - 4,020
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,154
Bearish Risk: Below 4,119

Trading Plan

Buy Scenario

Entry: 4,119 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,077
TP: 4,148 / 4,154 / 4,172

Condition: Price must pull back into the Buy Zone and hold with clear bullish reaction. Buyers need to defend 4,119 and keep the structure above the breakout level.

Buy Breakout

Entry: Above 4,154 after breakout and retest
SL: Below 4,119
TP: 4,168 / 4,172 / 4,200

Condition: Price must break the First Liquidity Target with strength, retest successfully, and continue forming higher lows. Avoid chasing the first breakout candle without confirmation.

Sell Reaction

Entry: 4,168 - 4,172
SL: Above 4,200
TP: 4,154 / 4,137 / 4,119

Condition: Price reaches the Final Liquidity Target and shows bearish rejection. This is only a reaction sell, not the main bias unless gold later breaks below 4,119.

Breakdown Sell

Entry: Below 4,119 after breakdown and retest
SL: Above 4,154
TP: 4,077 / 4,060 / 4,040

Condition: Price loses the Buy Zone, retest fails, and bullish momentum fades. This would weaken the breakout and open the way back toward the Buyer Hold Zone.

Overall Bias

Gold is short-term bullish after breaking the Weak High. Buyers are in control while price holds above 4,119.

If 4,119 holds, the next upside targets are 4,148 - 4,154 and 4,168 - 4,172. If 4,119 breaks, the breakout becomes weaker and gold may return toward 4,068 - 4,077.

Best approach: follow the bullish structure, but do not chase highs before NFP. Wait for a clean pullback to 4,119 or a confirmed breakout above 4,154.

Will buyers hold 4,119 and push into final liquidity, or will NFP volatility break the structure?