Gold is holding a firmer tone as geopolitical uncertainty continues to support defensive demand, while traders focus on upcoming US labor-market data for the next shift in interest-rate expectations.

However, the stronger-than-expected US manufacturing PMI and elevated input costs may keep Treasury yields and the dollar supported, potentially limiting the strength of the recovery. Attention now turns to job openings, private employment data and Friday’s employment report.

Technical Analysis

On the H1 chart, XAUUSD has reacted strongly from the 4,020–4,030 demand zone and broken above the descending liquidity-compression trendline.

Price has also reclaimed the EMA 34 and EMA 89 around 4,056–4,058, indicating that short-term control is shifting back toward buyers. This EMA cluster may now become the first support area during a corrective retest.

RSI is holding near 59, above the neutral 50 level without reaching overbought territory. Momentum therefore remains constructive and still has room to expand.

The MACD panel is not visible on the chart, so no live crossover can be confirmed. I would use a bullish MACD crossover or an expanding positive histogram only as additional confirmation after price holds above the broken trendline.

Important Key Levels

Breakout retest: 4,055–4,063
Demand zone: 4,020–4,030
Immediate acceptance level: 4,068–4,075
Premium FVG and bearish OB: 4,115–4,125

Trading Scenario

My primary view remains bullish while XAUUSD holds above the broken compression trendline and the EMA cluster.

A controlled retracement into 4,055–4,063, followed by bullish rejection, RSI holding above 50 and positive MACD confirmation, could support further expansion toward the 4,115–4,125 premium FVG and bearish order block.

A deeper pullback into 4,020–4,030 may still preserve the broader bullish structure because this zone combines demand with internal range support. I would avoid chasing price near resistance and prefer confirmation from one of the marked support areas.

Buy/Sell Condition

Bullish condition: Price defends 4,055–4,063 or the deeper demand zone, while momentum remains constructive and buyers establish acceptance above 4,075.

Bearish condition: Sustained H1 acceptance below 4,020 would weaken the bullish structure and suggest that the trendline breakout has failed.

Overall View

The trendline breakout, EMA recovery and RSI above 50 currently support a developing bullish bias. The next key test is whether buyers can maintain acceptance above the breakout structure before challenging the premium resistance zone.

Do you expect XAUUSD to retest the EMA cluster first or continue directly toward 4,120?