Oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump said new talks with Iran would begin following his decision to cancel a planned military strike, easing concerns over further escalation in the Middle East. The decline reflected reduced geopolitical risk, although prices are unlikely to remain lower without an agreement that restores normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remain cautious after a reported explosion near a tanker off Oman highlighted ongoing risks to maritime trade. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved another modest production increase, while Gulf producers continued seeking alternative export routes to reduce reliance on vulnerable shipping lanes.

From a technical perspective, crude oil has come under renewed selling pressure after failing to sustain its rally above $90, with price retreating toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $79.30, which is acting as immediate support. The decline has pushed price back around the 50-day SMA, while it remains below the 100-day SMA, keeping the broader outlook tilted to the downside. The Stochastic oscillator has fallen into oversold territory, suggesting bearish momentum may be fading and increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands have started to narrow after the recent surge in volatility, indicating that price swings may begin to moderate. A sustained break below $79.30 could expose the 61.8% Fibonacci support at $76.60, while a recovery above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $82 would improve the near-term technical outlook.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.