1. Trend Overview

Current Trend: Short-term Bullish Recovery
Key Signals:
After the sharp sell-off from 160.80 to around 155.30, USD/JPY has entered a consolidation phase and is gradually recovering.
Price is forming a base above the 157.25 support zone, indicating that sellers are losing momentum.
EMA 9 (≈157.74) has crossed above price and is turning upward, showing improving short-term momentum.
Price remains below EMA 89 (≈158.17), meaning the medium-term trend is still bearish despite the ongoing recovery.
RSI (14) ≈54 has moved above the neutral 50 level, suggesting buyers are gradually gaining control.
The histogram has turned positive, confirming improving bullish momentum.

👉 Conclusion: The H1 outlook has shifted to a short-term bullish recovery. As long as price holds above 157.25–157.30, the probability of extending the rebound toward 158.20–159.00 remains favorable.

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BUY USDJPY zone : 157.300 - 157.200

SL : 156.800

TP : 157.600 - 157.900 - 158.500

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2. Current Price Structure
H1 Structure
Higher Low: around 157.25
Current Price: around 157.77
Price is consolidating near the recent highs after a gradual recovery.

The market has transitioned from a sharp decline into an accumulation phase, with buyers beginning to build higher lows.

Current Pattern:

Sharp Decline → Accumulation → Bullish Recovery

A sustained break above 158.20 would confirm a stronger bullish continuation toward the next resistance levels.

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Economic Factors Affecting USD/JPY
1. Federal Reserve (Fed)
Markets remain focused on the Fed's interest-rate outlook.
If U.S. inflation and labor market data remain strong, expectations for higher-for-longer rates could support the U.S. dollar and push USD/JPY higher.
2. Bank of Japan (BoJ)
The BoJ continues to normalize monetary policy cautiously.
Any indication of faster policy tightening or higher Japanese bond yields could strengthen the yen and limit USD/JPY gains.
3. U.S. Treasury Yields
USD/JPY remains highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields.
Rising yields generally support USD/JPY, while falling yields tend to weigh on the pair.
4. Safe-Haven Flows
During periods of geopolitical uncertainty or risk aversion, the Japanese yen often benefits from safe-haven demand, which can cap USD/JPY rallies even if the U.S. dollar remains fundamentally supported.