US500 (4H): Probing Short on Overextension
BOS Confirmed: Probing Short Against the Vertical Rally
With a clear body close above 7,621.60, a Bullish Market Structure Break (BOS) has been confirmed on the 4-hour timeframe. This officially shifts both the momentum and the higher-timeframe structure to the upside.
However, the post-breakout rally has been nearly vertical, resulting in a significant overextension from key moving averages and the breakout point. Chasing longs at these levels offers extremely poor Risk-Reward (RR); from a professional standpoint, this is not an ideal entry zone for buyers.
Current Strategy:
While fully acknowledging that the trend and structure are now Bullish, I have entered a probing short position to capitalize on an expected cooling-off period and mean reversion.
Conclusion:
I am well aware that this short is a counter-trend play against the primary flow. My target is a corrective move to retest the breakout zone near 7,621.60. My primary interest remains a "long on a pullback," but for now, I am waiting for the market to breathe after this aggressive vertical move.
#US500 #SPX500