US500 (4H): Eyeing 7,621.60 for a Bullish Structural Shift
Signs of Structural Shift and a Warning Against FOMO Longs
We are seeing a strong recovery driven by Trump-related catalysts (TACO). The key level to watch is the 7,621.60 mark. A body close above this level would signal a Bullish Market Structure Break (BOS) on the 4-hour timeframe.
However, the current price action closely mirrors the consolidation phase seen in late 2025. Even if the structure turns bullish, there is a high risk of "directionless volatility" and choppy price action, similar to the movements of Nov-Dec last year.
Conclusion:
While a break above 7,621.60 will shift my bias to long, entering now is premature. I will wait for a sufficient pullback (retest) after the structure is confirmed. I’ll avoid chasing the price at levels with poor Risk-Reward (RR) and wait for the right entry point.
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