The most important chart in the market right now is the US 10-Year Treasury Yield.
And the chart looks BULLISH. Extremely BULLISH. Which is a problem. A BIG problem for stocks, especially growth stocks and the Nasdaq in particular.

The US10Y yield is the market’s benchmark risk-free rate, representing the return investors can earn by lending money to the US government for 10 years. Because almost every asset is priced relative to this rate, a rise in the 10-Year yield increases the discount rate investors use to value future cash flows, putting pressure on equity valuations especially growth stocks, with the Nasdaq being particularly sensitive to changes in yields.

The situation today is starting to resemble the oil shocks of the 1970s, October 1973 and January 1979 in one key way, oil prices aren't just spiking and then quickly reversing, as they did after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Instead, they're staying elevated.

The seventies were different. Prices quadrupled in 1973 and tripled again in 1979, There was no reversion. That's what turned an energy shock into an inflation era.

That's the pattern forming now: oil price is elevated for almost six months, with no resolution in sight. To be clear, I'm not calling for prices to quadruple like in the seventies, the point is the dynamics, not the magnitude.

When an oil spike lasts only a few weeks, the Fed can look through it as a temporary shock. But when elevated prices persist for months, the market starts treating it differently, oil is no longer a short-term disruption, but a lasting factor that can keep inflation higher and influence the Fed's rate decisions. Once that happens, it feeds into core inflation expectations, into the rate path, and into yields. The bond market is starting to price exactly that shift.

US10Y Technical Analysis-
The 10-Year Treasury Yield has been consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle since October 2023.

In May, yields attempted to break above the upper trendline, but the breakout failed to hold. At the beginning of July, yields made another breakout attempt — this time consolidating around the breakout level for two weeks before continuing higher. This move now looks like a much more confirmed breakout.

The official breakout point of this pattern is the second high of the triangle structure, marked by the green horizontal ray at 4.805%.

Using the HVF method to calculate the potential breakout targets, the measured moves point to Target 1 at 5.33% and Target 2 at 6.079%.

The last time the US10Y broke above a long-term symmetrical triangle was on January 6, 2022. Here is the chart:

Interestingly, this date marked the beginning of the collapse for NASDAQ that led to the 2022 bear market:

The current US10Y breakout and Nasdaq setup are starting to look very similar to what we saw in early 2022...