US100 / NQ — my weekly plan: bounce into resistance, then lower toward the 25K node

A daily-chart plan for Nasdaq (NQ / US100) into next week — how I'm framing it, not a call.

CONTEXT
After topping near 31,000 in June, NQ has been grinding lower and is now sitting around 28,400, back at a level that's acted as support/resistance before (white lines). The volume profile on the right shows where this whole move has traded: a thick block of volume down in the 25,000–25,500 area, and a lighter, thinner pocket right where price is now.

MY LEAN (two-step)
I'm not looking for a straight drop. My base case is a bounce first — up toward the ~29,000 resistance — and then, if sellers defend that level, a rotation lower. The thin volume below current price is the key: light-volume areas tend to get travelled through quickly, so if 29,000 rejects, I'd expect price to fall back toward the high-volume 25,000–25,500 node, which acts as the magnet / fair-value area.

ORDER FLOW
Cumulative delta is mixed here — a cluster of bull and bear divergences around the recent lows, so aggression isn't one-sided yet. That's part of why I want the bounce and the reaction at 29,000 before committing to the downside, rather than shorting into support blindly.

TWO SCENARIOS
- Base case: bounce into ~29,000 → rejection → rotation down toward 25,000–25,500 (the volume node).
- Invalidation: a clean daily close back above ~29,000 that holds → the bearish rotation idea is off, and I'd reassess higher.

That's my framing for the week. Not financial advice — just how I'm reading the auction. How are you all seeing NQ here?

Chart: my free Orderflow Suite (CVD + volume profile), on my profile.