TLT is an ETF that tracks 20+ year Treasury bonds. When its price falls, interest rates are generally rising. Last Friday, TLT undercut its October 2023 lows.

If you expect rates to keep rising, you would likely expect TLT to continue declining. If you believe rates are near a peak, you would look for TLT to reclaim the October 2023 undercut and eventually move above the VCP wedging pattern.

This has been a very long basing pattern, lasting more than two and three-quarter years. I expect it to eventually reclaim the lower baseline and break out of the wedge, though I do not know when. I have set an alert on the lower trendline, and if it triggers, I will trade it as an undercut-and-rally setup.

Keep in mind that if the Fed raises rates, TLT will likely continue trading lower. However, the market sets longer-term rates, not the Fed, even though the Fed heavily influences the bond market.

From a longer-term perspective, I do not see long rates continuing much higher from current levels. That said, this is only my opinion, and the market does not care what I think.

As always, if this idea provides value, make it your own and trade or invest according to your own rules. After all, it is your capital at risk.