THE KOG REPORT:

In last week’s KOG Report we said we wanted to see price attempt the low and bounce giving traders the opportunity to long into the RBD above, which worked well for the start of the week. We then wanted to see price at least attempt the 4120 level before giving a RiP, but we stopped short and managed to get the indication on the indicators that the move was going to start early.

The issue here is we’ve left two key RB’s untouched, which is very rare here in Camelot, meaning one thing, the start of August is going to be again, a very volatile week on gold.

During the week we published the NFP report and suggested traders wait for the move to finish before looking for a set up. We then said we would like to see the NFP high attacked and fail, before a rejection which would give traders the opportunity to short it again. This again worked extremely well combined with the scalping tools and intra-day indicators we have.

So, what can we expect in the week ahead?

Due to this being the start of a new month, we will want to see how we open tomorrow and how price reacts to weekend news. We have the key level below at the 4020 level and below that 4010 which is a strong level of support. Above, we have 4055-60 which is now a strong level of resistance. What I would like to see here is price attempt the 4055-60 region and if held, give us another opportunity to attempt the short trade initially into the 4020, 4010 and below that 4004 levels. It’s the lower level of 4004 that is key this week for bulls to defend, if breached, we feel we’re going to get another low this time attempting the 3950 and below that 3920 levels.

On the chart, we have plotted the flip as well, which is the breach of the 4060 level and the measured move into the 4120-40 regions which if approached could give the extension of the move and a RIP for a potential short. If you look further down, you will see our level of interest, and it’s quite scary! Not saying we’re going there, but it will be interesting to see what price does for the first week of August.

It’s been 6wks of long term ranging so a breakout from this range is going to be huge. Ideally, we want to see the breakout and the retest fail with continuation before committing long term. Until then we’re still having to trade level to level on the indicators taking the intra-day approach.

My bias is still short on gold, however, the way it’s swinging in the range, I’m only looking at the extreme levels for RIPs, even then, the RIPs we’re getting we’re taking on a level to level basis on the indicators. It’s the only way to trade this market condition in my opinion, if it goes up trade it up, if it goes down trade it down. With a majority of retail struggling with the moves and holding in the wrong direction, we're grateful we've traded it up to the highs, and captured the lows so far.

RED BOX TARGETS:

BREAK ABOVE 4050 for 4059, 4070 and 4085 in extension of the move
BREAK BELOW 4030 for 4020, 4010 and 4004 in extension of the move

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As always, trade safe.

KOG