You Asked. Here's Exactly What I Hold.

You sent me a stack of questions this week. I'll answer them straight, with my real orders and my real levels, not a highlight reel.

First, the honest part: am I profitable, and how do I trade

I've been in these markets for 13 years, and I did not turn profitable right away. My win rate is not 100%. If I'm honest, on plenty of setups it sits below 50%, same as most people. Start from that truth. You will be wrong often. Make peace with it as your baseline.

Everything I write here is my opinion, nothing more. Agree or don't, that's fine by me. These questions came to me directly, so I'm answering them directly.

If your win rate is around 50% or under, you can still make money. Two ways. Either your risk to reward is high enough to cover a low hit rate, or you narrow down to the specific setups where you know you perform. Everyone is different. Different psychology, different relationship with risk. So learn your weak sides and your strong sides.

Here is the exercise that fixed my discipline. I went back and studied my single best trade, the one with the biggest and most comfortable profit I can remember. It was the second most profitable trade of my life. The rule behind it was simple. Hold the winners as long as possible, and cut the losers as fast as possible. That is the whole edge.

And set a stop before you enter. For me that stop is a fixed dollar figure, decided before I click buy. I think about it in money, not in percentage of the move.

Trading is one of the hardest professions there is. What carries you is the boring work: knowing yourself, reviewing your own trades, and sticking to a plan. Call it discipline. That is exactly how I've traded this market. Very few positions, limit orders left working, no rush to force anything. Some of those orders filled, and I'll get to them below.

The entry model I use for continuation trades

Honest answer: trend continuation is not where I'm most comfortable. But one thing is always fixed first. Before any trade, I know exactly how many dollars I'm risking on the stop. Start there and the rest falls into place. Your risk defines your position size. Your position size and stop define where your entry has to be. It all begins with how much you're willing to lose.

When I do take continuation, I like entering after a liquidity sweep, into the zone where price is set up to keep going. I publish a fair number of indicators, and some of the free ones I use myself mark those zones of interest for entries. The higher the timeframe, the cleaner they read. That's the manual side. This year I also put a lot of work into automated trading, with different strategies and different logic. You can dig into those where they're documented.

You were warned, and I'll keep warning you

I've said it many times: a bear market was coming. I said it before, I'm saying it now, and I'll keep saying it. I even gave dates, the month and the window it runs into. We're almost there. September 2026 is close, and that's the timing I've been pointing at all along. You can go back and read where I called it here:

That is why I've stayed patient through all of this. Very few trades, orders left working at my levels, no need to prove anything to the market in the meantime.

Bitcoin: when and where I start buying

I already published the zone. Here is the exact post where I show where DCA makes sense:

Where I stand personally: I've already bought half the size I planned, a little under $60k. The second tranche sits lower and only fills if we get there. I'm not trying to nail the exact bottom. I just don't want to be caught with no Bitcoin in my portfolio, and I already hold a solid amount. On the chart you'll see the zone marked with the circle. That band is your DCA area, and right now is a good time to be working it.

The full plan I laid out earlier. I share it, though not publicly. The community that wants that level of detail gets it.

Ethereum: is there still more downside

Ethereum is the number two asset in the whole industry, so people watch it closely. I already have a fill here. My limit order at 1590 triggered, the one I've flagged many times, including publicly on my YouTube channel where I try to post every week. Right now that trade is up about 16%. As of today, August 4, 2026, I'm not closing it.

Can we still go lower? Yes. I won't rule out a move under $1,000. But I'll be straight with you, I don't have a second limit order down there. One entry, and I'm holding it.

Altcoins: what I'm buying into the final correction

Start with the frame. Altcoins are the highest-risk asset class in any financial market, full stop. My base case is that most alts eventually get dragged higher with the market. I keep a list with size allocated to each name, and I tried to pick coins that at least won't die on me. Nobody is insured against that, but that was the filter.

Since you asked, here is what I actually hold orders on: ONDO, TON, SOL (only at very low levels, think 50% or more below the current price), LINK, PYTH, ICP, NEAR, and even BCH. BCH is probably a mistake, but it is what it is. I do not hold HYPE. I think I missed it, and I'm not comfortable chasing it on a rising market. I also had Worldcoin (WLD) on a limit, but I pulled the order after it ran up without tagging my level, missed by a hair.

On the specific portfolios you sent me:

For the 60% into SOL between $50 and $60, that's your call, but for my own orders I'm waiting even lower, closer to 50% below the current price.

For the 20% into NEAR, ONDO and HYPE, understand these are all high-risk names. Fine as a small deliberate bet, not as a core holding.

On ADA, I count about five red flags. My call: Cardano needs a rebrand first, and only after that do we get a real leg up.

Going name by name on the beginner list, DOGE, BANK, HYPE, ENA, APT, ZAMA:

- DOGE: maybe. It's really a bet on Elon. He has plenty of other tools to move markets, so I wouldn't lean on it. If you believe he'll pump it again one day, that's your call.
- BANK: no.
- HYPE: maybe.
- ENA: I've wanted it for a while and I might still take it. It's not in my limit orders yet, but the price is getting attractive.
- APT (Aptos): I'd wait until the early-investor unlocks are done selling. Until then I don't expect much. I caught one trade, took it, and moved on.
- ZAMA: I don't have much to say here. These are mostly the names that are loud right now. I already told you the ones I actually have orders on. Again, high risk, and honestly you shouldn't lean on me for these picks.

Forecasts you asked for, XRP, SOL, Monero, Zcash:

- XRP: the most conspiracy-heavy coin on the market. My view holds, lower, and back under a dollar.
- SOL: also lower before it's worth buying.
- Monero: as regulation closes in, a chunk of the market does not want its money visible. Privacy coins are the natural hedge for that demand, and you can see Monero getting bought on exactly that thesis. I expect it stays volatile and stays bid.
- Zcash: same story on the demand side. I don't hold it. I have nothing to hide, and as a pure trade the time to buy was near 20, not 400 or 500 a coin. So it doesn't make my list.

The long game: BTC, ETH, gold, silver

Bitcoin. My entry view is already on the record. Half my position is bought, a bit under $60k, with a second entry lower for averaging, so I don't lie awake over buying too early or too late. On the upside, by the end of the next cycle I expect at least $160k. So ask yourself the real question: are you willing to hold roughly three years for that kind of return? To me that is a great trade. If you just want to make money and keep your life simple, buy spot Bitcoin, hold it, and go do other things.

Ethereum, long term. I don't love making this kind of call. Most of the market has $10,000 flashing in their heads. I have real doubts. My honest expectation is that Ethereum stagnates for at least the next two years, and the real growth starts only after that. A new all-time high should come eventually, the structure points that way, but I wouldn't rush it.

Gold. From here I'm actually waiting for a correction, at least $4,400. That pullback may never come, but if it does, that's the level I want to buy the move higher from.


Silver. It lags gold and moves the same way, so I expect it to follow higher eventually. It looks weak right now, no energy at all. I hold physical silver, and I'm sitting on it for the long haul.

What I've been building this year

You might have noticed fewer posts from me lately. Part of that is summer, and part of it is that I've been heads down building. This was a productive year and I did not coast through it. I understood the timing, so I used the quiet market to work instead of waiting it out.

A few things came out of it. I launched a separate platform in the financial space, an aggregator of trading tournaments across different venues. I shipped a lot of indicators, public and private. And I built out automated trading: a platform with strategies that we actually run live, on autopilot, and it works. That is where most of my energy went while the market did nothing.

I'm also starting to get inquiries about managed accounts. That one I'll keep to a quieter, non-public conversation for now.

I won't drop links here. If you want to see the results of that work, it isn't hard to find. The slow tape was build time, and I used every week of it.

Bottom line

So buckle up. Our limit orders are close to filling. We don't make unnecessary moves, we just keep doing our own thing and let the levels come to us.

Keep the frame I opened with. This is my opinion and my own book, nothing to follow blindly. Take the parts that fit your plan, size for the risk, and set your stop before you enter, not after.

Best Regards, EXCAVO