SOL is currently trading inside a descending channel and testing a major resistance zone around 74.23–75.04. As long as the price remains below this area, the bearish scenario remains my primary expectation.

This analysis combines Elliott Wave structure, Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, and market structure to estimate the probability of the next move.

Current Probability

🔴 Bearish scenario: 68%

🟢 Bullish scenario: 32%

These probabilities are not certainties; they simply represent the most likely outcomes based on the current market structure.

🔴 Bearish Scenario (68%)

The bearish case remains dominant because SOL is still trading within a well-defined descending channel and has not yet confirmed a breakout above key resistance levels.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market is still developing wave (b) of the larger Minute degree correction.

Inside wave (b), the market is currently forming wave c of the Subminuette degree, which itself is subdivided into a 1-2-3-4-5 Micro impulse structure.

At the smallest degree, price is currently expected to be in wave b of 3 (Submicro degree).

This means that the current upward movement may only be a temporary retracement before the market enters wave c of 3, potentially accelerating the bearish momentum.

Elliott Wave hierarchy

🔴 Red: Minute degree

🟢 Green: Subminuette degree

🟣 Purple: Micro degree

🌸 Pink: Submicro degree

🌸 Current Position: Wave b of 3 (Submicro)

The current submicro structure can be interpreted as follows:

Wave a has already completed.
Wave b is currently developing.
Wave c is expected to start after the retracement finishes.

Structure:

a ↓ completed
b ↑ in progress
c ↓ expected next

The current rally is considered corrective until the market proves otherwise.

📊 Fibonacci Retracement Zone (Wave b)

The retracement zone for wave b is located at:

0.500: 74.23
0.618: 75.04
0.764: 76.04

This area represents the main resistance zone. As long as price remains below 76.04, the bearish setup remains valid.

🎯 Fibonacci Extension Targets (Wave c)

Potential targets for wave c:

1.000: 67.82 (minimum target)
1.380: 65.21 (second target)
1.618: 63.57 (extended target)

The 67.82 level is particularly important because it represents the minimum Fibonacci extension target for wave c.

If bearish momentum increases, the market could continue toward 65.21 and even 63.57.

Why the Bearish Probability Is Higher (68%)

✅ Price is still trading inside the descending channel.

✅ The market structure continues to form lower highs and lower lows.

✅ The resistance zone at 74.23–75.04 coincides with the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 retracement area.

✅ There is no confirmed breakout above 76.04.

✅ The current move appears corrective rather than impulsive.

✅ Wave c of 3 has not yet started and could bring stronger selling pressure.

🟢 Bullish Scenario (32%)

The bullish scenario remains possible, but confirmation is still lacking.

For bulls to regain control, SOL must:

✅ Break above 75.04.

✅ Close above 76.04 on the 4-hour timeframe.

✅ Break out of the descending channel.

✅ Change the market structure from lower highs to higher highs.

If this happens, the entire Elliott Wave count may need to be reassessed.

Bullish Targets

🎯 78.00

🎯 80.00

🎯 82.00–84.00

Key Levels
Resistance
74.23
75.04
76.04
Support
69.40
67.82
65.21
63.57
Conclusion

As long as SOL remains below 75.04–76.04, I maintain a 68% bearish probability and expect the current wave b of 3 to complete before the market continues lower in wave c of 3.

However, a confirmed breakout above the resistance zone would invalidate this scenario and significantly increase the bullish probability.

Disclaimer: This analysis represents only one possible Elliott Wave scenario and should not be considered financial advice. Always use proper risk management.