By analyzing the #SOL (Solana) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that the scenario we weighted as primary has delivered — and I want to report it precisely, including the part that is not finished. On 9 July we published with price at $77.74, sitting inside the Flip Zone after a corrective rally, and we put two scenarios on the table. We called Scenario A — direct rejection and downtrend resumption — the higher-probability path, for one specific reason: the rally into that zone was corrective in character, not impulsive. Price has since dropped −16.03%. You can revisit the original breakdown here:

⏱️ 4H Timeframe
The higher-timeframe structure has not changed, and that is the point. Price printed an external CHoCH, sold off through repeated iCHoCH and iBOS sequences, and confirmed the shift with an external BOS. Every corrective rally since has stayed shallow — the signature of a market where sellers still set the terms.

The corrective leg we published on carried price into the F Zone ($79.57 – $88.33), the exact supply we flagged. It tapped the zone, failed to hold it, and rolled over — and from there the decline was clean and sustained, running −16.03% lower. Price is currently trading around $74.28, comfortably beneath the zone that rejected it.

Now the honest part: the target is not complete. The sell-side liquidity we mapped at $51.03 has not been touched. This is a working idea that has paid partway, not a closed one, and I would rather say that plainly than dress a partial result up as a finished trade.

Above price, the structure is stacked against the bulls. The F Zone base at $79.57 is the first ceiling, the descending trendline sits above it, and the Protected High at $97.84 remains the structural line in the sand for the entire bearish thesis — untouched since we named it.

🎯 The Bias
Both scenarios from the original idea remain live, and neither has been resolved. Here they are, updated.

Scenario A — continuation (still primary). My base case is unchanged: this is a downtrend that paused, not one that ended. As long as price stays capped beneath the F Zone at $79.57 – $88.33, every push higher remains a selling opportunity rather than a reversal, and the draw stays toward the sell-side liquidity at $51.03 — with the deeper pool we mapped at $12.93 only relevant on a genuine momentum break. The reason I still weight this path is the same reason I weighted it in July, and it has only strengthened: buyers have not produced a single impulsive leg. Corrective rallies that fail at supply do not become uptrends.

Scenario B — the reclaim (still conditional). I have to keep this on the table honestly. If buyers force price back through the F Zone and then deliver a clean daily close above the Protected High at $97.84, the structure flips bullish and this entire idea is invalidated. On that, the upper Flip Zone ($94.82 – $106.14) and the FVG we mapped above at $144.62 – $151.04 come into play. That is a high bar — but it is a specific, testable one, and I would rather name it than pretend the bearish case cannot fail.

The rule that separates the two: a break is a candle close, not a wick. Price has now spent weeks failing at this zone. Expect at least one spike back into it designed to convince the market the rejection is over. Let the close decide, and don't sell blindly into a level that has already paid 16%.

📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The backdrop is genuinely split, and both halves deserve stating.

On the bearish side, momentum is where the chart says it is. Solana has been trading in the $72–$74 region, holding beneath both its 20-day EMA at $75.81 and its 50-day EMA at $76.27, with the 14-day RSI around 43 — weakening, not recovering. That detail matters structurally: those two moving averages sit directly between current price and the base of our F Zone, forming a second shelf of resistance right where sellers are already active. The recovery attempt off the June lows has stalled, and SOL remains far below its all-time high near $293.

On the bullish side, and this has improved since our July note, the institutional bid is real. US spot Solana ETFs have continued to post net inflows rather than outflows, and the newly approved Morgan Stanley Solana ETF is an additional supportive channel. On-chain, over 67.7% of SOL supply is now staked, which meaningfully tightens liquid float. And the Alpenglow consensus overhaul — targeting roughly 150ms finality — remains the pending upgrade we flagged in July and is the single most credible catalyst for a genuine re-rating.

So the conflict is honest: flows and fundamentals are improving while price and momentum are not. In my view that tension resolves at $79.57 and, ultimately, at $97.84. Until the fundamentals produce a daily close above those levels, they are a reason to respect the bearish case with tighter risk — not a reason to abandon it.

This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Solana heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳