I wrote in late June that Oracle ORCL was showing bearish technical patterns, but now, Oracle's chart says the stock could be feeling around for a bottom (or might have already found one). Let's check it out.

Oracle's Fundamental Analysis

Oracle fell a total of 54.2% from its $250.20 seven-month intraday high on June 1 to its aforementioned $114.50 low on July 28.

The beat-down came after the tech giant reported in early June what looked on the surface like a strong fiscal Q4.

But as I explained at the time, the firm was burning cash -- lots of it -- while loading up on debt. In fact, I wrote that Oracle was running with a balance sheet that "no competent CFO would brag about."

Wall Street expects ORCL to next report quarterly results in early September, with analysts looking for $1.74 in adjusted earnings per share and $1.30 of GAAP EPS on $19.12 billion of revenue.

Numbers like that would be good for more than 28% in annual sales growth and 31.3% year-over-year gains from the $1.30 in the firm's $1.01 in Q1 fiscal-2026 GAAP EPS. They would also represent an 18.4% y/y increase from the $1.47 in adjusted EPS that ORCL posted in the year-ago period.

Meanwhile, 20 of the 33 sell-side analysts that I know of who cover ORCL have boosted their current-quarter earnings estimates higher since the period began, while just six have lowered their numbers. (Seven have left their digits unrevised.)

Oracle's Technical Analysis

Next, let's look at ORCL's chart going back about four months and running through Tuesday afternoon (Aug. 4):

Readers might recall that I wrote in June that Oracle saw a rising-wedge pattern of bearishness this past spring, marked in orange shading in the above chart's left.

As I noted in June, this pattern then led into a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal, which you can see shaded in green in the above chart's center. This set-up had a $178 apparent downside pivot (the pattern's neckline).

Since then, Oracle has begun to develop what looks like either a developing cup pattern or a cup-with-handle one, shaded in gray at the chart's right. Either set-up would be bullish.

The cup pattern's pivot would be the cup's left-side apex at $195 in the chart above. But should the pattern develop into a cup with handle, the pivot point would move over to the cup's right-side apex (at a price level not yet known).

In the meantime, Oracle has already retaken its 21-day Exponential Moving Average -- or "EMA," marked with a green line at $134.30 vs. the $145.74 that ORCL closed at Tuesday. This might have put the swing crowd back on offense.

However, a larger test will come at either Oracle's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a blue line at $163.10) or its 200-day SMA (marked with a red line at $181.50).

Oracle will need to retake both lines to complete the cup pattern above. It will also likely have to reconquer at least one of them to get professional managers interested in getting back into the stock on the long side.

Looking at the other technical indicators above, Oracle's Relative Strength Index (the gray line marked "RSI" at the chart's top) has finally moved above the neutral line after almost two months in the proverbial wilderness.

Similarly, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," denoted by blue bars, a black line and a gold line at the chart's bottom) is postured less negatively than it's been in a long while.

For instance, the histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) went positive in late July. That's a short-term bullish signal.

So is the fact that the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed above the 26-day EMA (the gold line). If the 12-day line can maintain its lead above the- 26-day one and both cross above the zero-bound, that would enhance the bullish signal even more.

(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in ORCL at the time of writing this column.)

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