As the conflict involving Iran creates greater uncertainty across global oil markets, other countries are finding new opportunities to become more energy self-reliant.

We are already seeing new investments move into domestic production, heavy crude development, alternative supply routes, renewable energy, and strategic reserves. Governments appear to be accelerating these projects to reduce their exposure to future disruptions in the global oil market.

This could create a mixed outlook for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions may support prices in the near term, but rising production outside the traditional oil hubs and lower dependence on imports could limit the strength of oil over time.

Because of this, I do not expect oil to remain consistently strong in the $75–$80 range unless the conflict causes a major and prolonged supply disruption.

My view: short-term geopolitical support,but increasing long-term pressure as countries diversify and strengthen domestic energy production.