MP is showing the first credible signs of a short-term recovery, but the larger weekly structure remains damaged.

On the 4H chart, price appears to be forming a rounded base after defending the $38–$40 area. The recent move through the local change-of-character level near $43.20–$43.40 is constructive, and buyers are now testing the immediate high around $44.40.

However, this is not yet a confirmed weekly reversal. MP remains below the major weekly structure levels at $50.50 and $56.31. Until those areas are reclaimed, the current move can still be classified as a relief rally inside a broader downtrend.

Bullish Case

The short-term bullish structure remains valid while MP holds above the recent breakout area around $43.00–$43.30.

A sustained break above $44.40 would open the next resistance zone around $45.50–$46.50.

The more important test is $50.50. Reclaiming that level would materially improve the weekly structure and suggest that the current base is developing into something larger.

Bullish Roadmap:

$43.00 holds → $44.40 breaks → $45.50–$46.50 → $50.50 → $56.31

Bearish Case

The main risk is that this is only a lower-timeframe bounce.

Failure near $44.40–$46.50, followed by a loss of $41.37, would weaken the rounded-base thesis. A move back below $40.50 would expose the recent low near $38.

Losing $38 would invalidate the current recovery structure and confirm that sellers remain in control.

Bearish Roadmap:

$44.40 rejects → $43.00 fails → $41.37 → $40.50 → $38.00

[b>Important Levels

Resistance: $44.40, $45.50–$46.50, $50.50, $56.31

Support: $43.00–$43.30, $41.37, $40.50, $38.00

Final View

The 4H chart is improving and the rounded-base structure deserves attention.

But the honest interpretation is that MP has only started a potential recovery. It has not yet reversed the weekly trend.

Above $44.40, the recovery can continue toward $46.50 and potentially $50.50. Below $41.37, the bullish structure begins to fail.

The lower timeframe is turning bullish, while the weekly chart still requires confirmation.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.