Moving Average Multiple and Fib Extensions: Convergence Targets
I haven't talked at all about Benford's Law for price targets yet, ... but I can get into that later ... but In this post, I'm going to formerly introduce the idea of Puell Multiples, although I've already briefly mentioned it in my MSTR post.
A Puell Multiple is where you have a moving average (preferably a moving average that has acted as support in the past), and you apply a multiple of that moving average, usually an integer multiple, like 2, 3, 4, 11, 23 or so on (MSTR last cycle topped at the 23 multiple of its 5,000 day moving average for instance, lol) ... to the moving average that worked as support, and this new multiple of the MA should hopefully act as resistance.
The best way I've found to use these is to use multiple lines, and set most of your limit sell orders to around the middle of the pack ... so if there are 7 lines, then sell at line number 4. This is not set in stone though, since sometimes it may be correct to sell at line 3 or line 5 or even 6 ... but I would never try to sell at the very top line. That's just too risky. It's better to pretty much start offloading by at least line 4, and be fully complete in your selling by line 6 if there are 7 lines.
To make the multiple lines, fit one of them to the support MA, and find the right multiple, that closely intersects the tops, ... this will often be a 2 or 3, but as mentioned before in some of the wilder stocks like MSTR they can even get into the double digits ... and after that's done, it can be good to use some other standard MAs and try to fit multiples to them that match just below the peaks, using maybe MAs of 500 days, 200 days, 1,000 days, 5,000 days, and just kind of experiment with what would have worked in the past, sort of briefly "1 of 1" backtesting as you go.
Feel free to paper trade this on other stocks, and reply with a comment to this post, to let me know how it worked out in your forward testing.