Gold | Tracking Wave IV Before the Next Major Move
XAUUSD | 4H Elliott Wave Update

Based on the Elliott Wave Principle, two primary structural scenarios currently best fit the market. These represent our current interpretation of price behavior and will be reviewed as new structural evidence emerges.

In the aggressive scenario, Wave A is considered complete as a Leading Diagonal. The Base Channel has been drawn solely to evaluate the first impulsive advance of Wave B. If this structure remains valid, the market is expected to complete Wave 3 followed by Wave 5 of this initial advance.

However, this is only the first segment of Wave B. Once this move is complete, a corrective pullback of any valid corrective pattern is expected, followed by another rally to complete Wave B as a classic A-B-C Zigzag. Afterward, one final decline should develop as Wave C, completing Wave IV as a classic Zigzag correction.

In the conservative scenario, additional structural confirmation is still required before assuming the beginning of the next higher-degree bullish trend. A clear Impulse, Leading Diagonal, or a series of nested 1-2 wave structures would significantly strengthen the bullish case. Likewise, a breakout above Gold's all-time high alone is not sufficient. A valid corrective pattern following the breakout would provide stronger confirmation for the continuation of the larger uptrend.

This analysis is based on the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, combined with continuous research and market observation. As price evolves, both the wave count and structural interpretation will be reviewed whenever necessary.

Price is the outcome. Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.

— Mr.Nobody
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Jul 24
Gold | One More Wave or the Beginning of a Bullish Reversal?