Gold Set to Break the 4400 Mark Next Week

Gold staged a strong reversal this week, surging over 7%—the largest weekly gain of the year. The rally kicked off at the 4000 level, fueled by consistently weak ADP and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. Notably, Friday’s NFP report showed a decline in employment for the first time in months (a loss of 23,000 jobs), directly dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. With the US dollar and Treasury yields falling, gold prices climbed to a high of 4371, ultimately closing firmly above the 4340 level. My strategic analysis for gold this week proved entirely accurate.

The key focus for next week is the US CPI inflation data for July, scheduled for Wednesday evening. Following the NFP report, this data serves as a crucial indicator of whether cooling employment is translating into lower inflation, thereby determining the strength and sustainability of the current bullish trend. While the medium-term bullish trend is established, the rapid, sustained surge has left multi-timeframe indicators severely overbought and resulted in an accumulation of profit-taking pressure at high levels. My outlook for next week is a trend of "strong oscillation with an upward bias": expect initial high-level consolidation to digest profit-taking and a minor pullback to confirm support levels. Favorable CPI data could drive a push toward the 4400 mark, whereas stronger-than-expected data might trigger a short-term pullback. Trading strategy should prioritize buying on dips while cautiously testing short positions with light volume at highs; strict position management is essential when navigating this high-impact inflation data. I will continue to share precise trading strategies.