Gold experienced a volatile decline in July, repeatedly testing the 3960 support level while forming a base. Although highs gradually shifted lower, buying support from below remained evident, and the month ultimately closed with a small bullish candle featuring a long lower shadow. Fundamentally, while the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, its hawkish stance remains a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over gold bulls. Thursday's PCE data showed a 0.1% month-over-month decline, indicating a temporary easing of inflation; this triggered a minor rebound in gold, though it was insufficient to alleviate market concerns. The focus for August will be the situation in the Middle East, which will determine the direction of gold prices.
Technically, the daily Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating a short-term trading range of 3945–4200; unless this range is broken, a one-sided trend is unlikely. On the 4-hour chart, the price failed to firmly establish itself above the week's high of 4116. It pulled back under pressure yesterday, rebounding after touching 4020—aligning with expectations. Long positions were actually held from 4028 during the session, focusing on compounding gains from short-term fluctuations. Resistance levels for next week are at 4120 and 4170, while support levels are at 4000 and 3970; in this range-bound market, the strategy is to sell at highs and buy at lows.

Trading Recommendation: Buy gold near 4000–3995; targets are 4020–4060 and 4100!
If the price fails to break above 4120, consider selling/shorting!