Gold's "Survival in the Cracks"

The biggest news today came from Trump's announcement that the US and Iran would begin negotiations this afternoon, while simultaneously canceling the strike against Iran.

This news instantly cooled geopolitical risk aversion, causing international oil prices to plummet by over 7%.

Logically, waning safe-haven demand should be bearish for gold, but gold unexpectedly rallied this morning.

This is because the oil price crash eased inflation anxieties, providing the Federal Reserve with more room for a dovish stance. Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the specific details of the US-Iran negotiations, and the lack of a formal response from Iran, the market has temporarily opted for an optimistic "buy the rumor" recovery.

The ADP and non-farm payroll data will dominate the Fed's September interest rate expectations; even bigger developments are yet to come.

Therefore, today's news-driven rebound is more likely a short-covering and technical correction than a trend reversal.

Key Positions Determine Life or Death

Upward Resistance Zone:
4069-4080 is the first strong intraday resistance level.

A break above this level is needed to target 4096-4106.

A rebound above 4100 would be an excellent area for shorting.

Downward Key Support:
4040-4036 is the first support line for intraday bullish/bearish reversal.

A break below this level would test the 4008-4000 level, the last line of defense for the bulls.

Strategy: Only trade within the range, avoid breakouts.

Given the current price's proximity to the pivot point and the frequent shifts in news, chasing highs and lows carries extremely high risk.

It is recommended to adopt a range-bound trading strategy, buying low and selling high, with small positions and strict stop-loss orders.

Strategy 1: Conservative Short Position
Entry Range: Around 4095 - 4105 (placing orders in batches)
Stop Loss: Above 4118
Target: First target 4060 (pivot point),

Second target 4040

Strategy 2: Defensive Long Position
Entry Range: Around 4030 - 4038
Stop Loss: Below 4015
Target: First target 4060,

Second target 4080

Variation Warning: Progress of US-Iran negotiations: If news of "substantial progress" emerges from the afternoon negotiations, gold may instantly plunge below 4020;
If negotiations break down or involve mutual accusations, gold prices may instantly rise by $20 to test 4110.

Summary: Gold is currently at the 4058 neckline. The upside and downside potential depends on whether the US-Iran negotiations are a genuine handshake or a mere formality.

Intraday, the preferred strategy is to short near 4100, or go long near 4035. Observe and do not participate in the intermediate price range.