Current Market Overview
Gold delivered a powerful rally this week. At the close of the US session on Friday (August 7), spot gold settled at $4,341.37/oz , gaining $101.03 (+2.38%) on the day. For the week, it surged +7.36% , adding $297.51 – the best weekly performance since late January.

Key Drivers

The primary catalyst behind this week’s rally was a string of disappointing US employment data.

These weak numbers triggered a rapid repricing of Fed rate expectations – the probability of a September rate hike dropped below 50% (from nearly 60% before the data). A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, combined with the “weak jobs + weak dollar + rising rate‑cut bets” trifecta, fuelled gold’s surge.

Furthermore, global central banks purchased 288.9 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, up 62% year‑on‑year and the highest on record for that quarter, providing a strong structural tailwind for gold.

Technical Chart Analysis

Daily Timeframe
Gold has effectively broken above the descending trendline that had been in place since May, and has reclaimed the key **$4,310** resistance zone. After forming a **triangular consolidation** following the June low near $3,942, this week’s strong bullish candle confirmed an upside breakout.

Moving Averages: Price stands firmly above all short‑term MAs; short‑term MAs are bullishly diverging, while the medium‑term MA provides solid support.

Support/Resistance Flip: The former resistance at $4,300 has now turned into support.

MACD (Daily): Momentum has entered overbought territory – watch for potential pullback risks.

RSI: Remains in strong territory, with no clear divergence yet.

If price holds above $4,310:

First target: $4,382 – $4,400

Second target: $4,432 – $4,450

Stretch target: $4,500

At Monday’s open, the $4,400 area will be in focus. A clean break and close above $4,400 would reinforce bullish sentiment, opening the door to $4,432 and eventually $4,500.

Bearish Scenario (Corrective Pullback)
Two risks to note:

Overextended short‑term move: A ~$300 rally in one week creates overbought conditions and potential for profit‑taking.

Overbought daily momentum: With daily momentum in overbought zone, a pullback this week is highly likely.

If price breaks below $4,310:

First support: $4,280 – $4,300

Second support: $4,250 (key line in the sand)

A loss of $4,250 would substantially damage the bullish structure.

Key event to watch:

US CPI data: Many institutions warn this will be the key catalyst for whether gold can break through $4,500.