Yesterday played out almost exactly as I expected—price reached up into my higher-timeframe area late in the NY session, printing a high around 4163.8 before sellers stepped back in aggressively. By the close, price had not only rejected the highs but also traded back below Monday's low, showing that buyers still haven't proven they can hold value higher.

As we head into Wednesday, my focus shifts to a 30-minute Fair Value Gap just overhead.

I'm not interested in chasing shorts down here.

Instead, I'd rather see price retrace back into that imbalance. If buyers push into the FVG, it gives the market an opportunity to finish the auction on the upside.

What I'm really looking for is excess.

By excess, I don't simply mean price reaching resistance. I want to see the auction become well-balanced on the DOM and Volume Profile, with a clean taper at the highs. That tells me buyers have exhausted themselves rather than simply running out of time. If that develops inside the 30-minute FVG, it creates a much higher-quality failed auction for sellers to take control.

That setup would also push price outside the primary value area that has developed since the end of June. A rejection from outside value followed by acceptance back inside would strengthen the bearish case considerably.

My Game Plan

📈 Bullish into the 30M FVG.

❌ Watch for excess and buyer exhaustion.

📉 Look for acceptance back below value before considering shorts.

If buyers instead accept above the FVG and begin building value there, I'll step aside. A good trader doesn't marry a bias—they follow where value is being established.

Patience before prediction. The best trades usually come after the market finishes telling its story.