XAUUSD GOLD | Bulls Remain in Control Above the Key Pivot

Fundamental Overview

Gold traded near $4,050 on Tuesday, remaining within the $4,000–$4,100 range that has dominated price action in recent weeks. Investors continue to assess the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook while closely monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East for any signs of progress toward a diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran.

Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious stance on inflation. New York Fed President John Williams said inflation continues to move gradually lower but emphasized that the Fed remains prepared to raise interest rates if price pressures persist. In addition, the three policymakers who dissented from last week's decision to keep rates unchanged reiterated that further monetary tightening may still be necessary.

Meanwhile, conflicting statements from U.S. and Iranian officials regarding potential negotiations have kept geopolitical uncertainty elevated, maintaining demand for gold as a safe-haven asset despite expectations of higher interest rates.

Gold continues to trade with a bullish bias as investors balance expectations for U.S. monetary policy against ongoing geopolitical developments. Market attention remains focused on upcoming U.S. economic data and headlines from the Middle East, both of which could determine the next major move.

Technically Overview

The bullish structure remains intact as long as the price trades above 4061, with 4072 acting as the first key resistance.

A 15-minute or 1H candle close above 4088 would confirm bullish continuation toward 4100 and 4112. A break above 4112 would open the way for the next bullish leg toward 4159.

However, a 1H candle close below 4061 would invalidate the bullish outlook and support a corrective move toward 4044, followed by 4018.

Support: 4061 - 4044 – 4018
Resistance: 4088 – 4100 – 4112